Read our Seafreight Insights to find out about the latest developments in the global sea cargo industry. Get an update on trade and rate developments as well as flexible solutions offered by cargo-partner to deal with the current challenges.
As we entered 2026, the sea freight market remained highly volatile in January. This was driven by a surge in demand as shippers sought to accelerate shipments before Chinese factories close for the Lunar New Year (Chinese New Year, CNY) in mid-February. Carriers traditionally use this opportunity to push for rate increases at the beginning of the year. However, rates retreated quickly this time, as demand remained soft and failed to hold.
Current trends point to a softening market due to significant overcapacity. Although disruptions are beginning to ease slightly as some vessels resume transit through the Red Sea, the influx of new vessel capacity is expected to put further downward pressure on both spot and long-term contract rates. This development will become noticeable by the second quarter of the year. At the same time, geopolitical instability, including potential retaliatory measures linked to EU-US trade disputes, will continue to create uncertainty and keep market conditions challenging.
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Key market dynamics and trends include:
Global geopolitical tensions continue to reshape trade flows.
The continued need to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope due to security risks in the Red Sea remains a crucial factor. While the industry is seeing a tentative, phased return of container ships to the Red Sea (e.g. CMA-CGM’s Indamex and Maersk’s MECL services), the broad, full-scale transit remains uncertain for now.
Port congestion at major transshipment hubs such as Singapore and key European ports will persist until February, slowing vessel turnaround times and affecting schedule reliability.
Weather-related disruptions in the Asia-Pacific region remain unpredictable and cause recurring delays to vessel berthing operations.
Freight rates are expected to decline in the weeks following Chinese New Year, with some carriers withdrawing peak season surcharges at the beginning of February.
Given the ongoing overcapacity issues and softening post-holiday demand, carriers are expected to further increase the number of blank sailings to prevent a complete rate collapse.
Demand growth in 2026 is projected to be modest, at around 3%. However, with the global fleet expected to grow by around 3.6%, capacity expansion will once again outpace demand.
The introduction of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in 2026 will lead to additional costs on routes to Europe.
Current market assessment from February 2, 2025:
Legend: traffic lights showing current status, arrow indicates possible development of transport rates.
Current Key Takeaways
Trade Analysis: Far East Westbound
Trade Analysis: Transpacific
Trade Analysis: Far East Eastbound
Trade Analysis: Transatlantic
