Trade Analysis: Transpacific

Situation

We are seeing exceptionally strong demand on this trade lane, driven by factors similar to those impacting Asia-Europe routes: Shippers are rushing to bring cargo to the USA ahead of the the 10% tariff deadline, eager to avoid the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming regulatory changes.

This trend is particularly evident in the heightened demand for US West coast routings, where shorter transit times offer a crucial advantage. Although several carriers are bringing back services on this trade lane, we still see rates increasing from July onward. In addition, Peak Season Surcharges are increasing in long-term contracts as well.

Obstacles

Limited space and frequent port omissions are making it difficult to keep supply chains stable. On a positive note, this route is not experiencing the equipment shortages seen on other trade lanes. However, the space situation on the East coast is tighter compared to the West, a direct result of reduced capacity allocations and the widening rate gap between the two coasts.

Outlook

With the aforementioned tariff deadline approaching, we expect the situation to normalize after the first week of July. Although we will still see reasonable volumes on this trade lane, we do not expect further rate increases after mid-July. An improvement in terms of space availability is expected in August.

Main Ports: Far East to US West Coast

Source: Market average rates for 40‘ containers according to www.xeneta.com

Main Ports: Far East to US East Coast

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