Situation

Bookings showed strong momentum in December and January, but both forecasts and booking volumes began to decline from mid-February onward. Rates reached their peak on this trade lane over the past few weeks, but since then, we have observed weekly rate decreases, which is also reflected in indices such as SCFI and Xeneta.

 Obstacles

To maintain flexibility for post-CNY departures, carriers are building up a “roll pool” by accepting more bookings than the current capacity allows. This could cause delays, as some shipments may be held in transshipment hubs and, eventually, at the ports of loading (POL). However, no major rollover issues are expected, as the peak season was relatively moderate this year.

Some additional blank sailings are likely to be announced, as some ships that were initially meant to transit via the Suez Canal eastbound will now be diverted via the Cape of Good Hope. This means that some vessels will arrive in Asia later than anticipated.

Adverse weather conditions are negatively impacting reliability at European ports, and this could continue into February.

 Outlook

A moderate recovery is expected after Chinese New Year, but volumes are not likely to be very strong in March. This will continue to put pressure on rates, which are expected to stabilize at lower levels or decline further. The Suez Canal route and the current geopolitical situation in the region remain key concerns and could delay ships returning to this route.

Main Ports: Far East to North Europe

^{Source: Market average rates for 40‘ containers according to www.xeneta.com}

Main Ports: Far East to Mediterranean