Trade Analysis: Far East Westbound

Situation

The pre-Chinese New Year rush was less pronounced than in previous years, and there was sufficient space to ship out cargo before factories closed. However, congestion at terminals such as Shanghai and Yantian was an issue. Some factories are still closed and will not reopen until the beginning of March. Demand is lower than usual, but is expected to recover by mid-March. The full impact of military tensions on sea cargo operations is yet to be seen.

 Obstacles

The roll pools created by carriers before CNY have had a negative impact on the transit times and reliability of some shipments, resulting in delays at transshipment ports.

 Outlook

Demand is currently low, but a recovery is expected in the second half of March. In April, CMA-CGM will launch their new direct service connecting Japan and Northern Europe. This will be the company’s only direct service. The service will also call at the Chinese ports of Xiamen and Yantian, offering a market advantage in terms of transit time. At the same time, it will introduce extra capacity to the market.

Recent developments mean that a return to the Suez Canal is no longer a viable option, despite the fact that most observers initially expected carriers to use this option more widely at the end of Q2. However, as always, everything depends on the situation in the region.

Main Ports: Far East to North Europe

Source: Market average rates for 40‘ containers according to www.xeneta.com

Main Ports: Far East to Mediterranean

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