Source: Market average rates for 40‘ containers according to www.xeneta.com
Trade Analysis: Far East Westbound
Situation
Demand on this route remains low and this year we have not seen the traditional “cargo rush” before Chinese New Year. Despite carriers implementing multiple blank sailings during Chinese New Year, this did not bring the desired effect of stable rates or even a possible rate increase. The short-term outlook in terms of volumes is not positive. The situation is slightly better in the Mediterranean area than in North Europe. The effects of rising inflation and overstocking can still be felt throughout Europe, and short-term rates are at pre-COVID-19 levels.
Obstacles
Carriers will continue their blank sailing programs in Q1 in order to control supply and stabilize rates. Blank sailings may cause disruptions to supply chains and affect service availability.
Outlook/Solutions
Space will remain open and rates are not expected to increase in the short term, however we could see a tight space situation in certain weeks due to ongoing blank sailings. The second quarter is expected to see an improvement in terms of volumes. With China easing pandemic restrictions, we also expect to see some improvement regarding demand. In addition, if private consumption improves in Europe, this could also have a positive effect on volumes.