Source: Market average rates for 40‘ containers according to www.xeneta.com
Trade Analysis: Far East Westbound
Situation
The carriers were able to manage the space at the end of July and beginning of August optimally and achieved the rates to increase – a minimum of 40-50% of the announced GRI (“general rate increase”) was successful. Certain services are very well utilized in the coming weeks.
On the other hand, another rate increase in mid-August was not successful and the rates were extended until end August. This positive rate adjustment trend was mainly seen in the NWC trade rather than in the MED, where volumes remain low and rates could not achieve an increase
Obstacles
Carriers will further have blank sailings in September respectively later for pre/post ‘’Golden Week’’ sailings which will disrupt the supply chains. Some of those shipments may face delays due to non-weekly services on all the loops.
Outlook/Solutions
We expect the rates to slowly drop towards end of August and currently the carriers are cautious about situation in September. Some new 24,000 TEU ships will successfully replace smaller ones, which will create additional pressure on rates and rate-discipline of the carriers. So far there hasn’t been any GRI announced in September and we will monitor the situation carefully. The chance to see a pre-Golden Week rush is rather unlikely.
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