Airfreight Insights

The global air cargo market in July was characterized by a sharp decline in volumes on the Hong Kong/China-Europe trade lane. Meanwhile, on the trade lane between Asia and the USA, strong demand for AI industry-related shipments continues.

Our Current Market Analysis

• Middle Eastern airlines are now operating nearly at pre-war levels, according to Flightradar24 data from mid-July. This has had a positive impact on available cargo capacity.

• Higher jet fuel costs remain a challenge for the aviation industry. Although prices have declined over the past three months from their April peak, they remain significantly above last year’s levels. According to the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor published on August 10, jet fuel prices recorded a 63% year-on-year increase. This spike was driven by rising fuel costs in July, following renewed escalations in the Middle East.

• Although prices started to decline again at the end of July, oil price fluctuations will remain a crucial factor in the future development of freight rates.

• Effective July 1, the European Union introduced its announced € 3.00 fixed customs duty for parcels valued under € 150.00. This led to an approximate 40% decline in e-commerce volumes on the Hong Kong/China-to-Europe trade lane in July. 

• In response, carriers have canceled freighter flights, leading to a reduction of available capacity on this route. Consequently, capacity in the opposite direction, from Europe to Hong Kong/China, has also decreased.

• Following the introduction of the new EU customs regulation, Chinese low-value e-commerce volumes are shifting to other markets, including Africa, the Middle East, the United States, and Latin America. Demand for additional capacity has increased particularly on routes to Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina.

• Demand for AI infrastructure-related shipments and semiconductors is currently driving growth in the global air cargo market, with exceptionally strong demand for air cargo capacity on the Asia–US trade lane.

• The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) recorded a year-on-year growth of 102% in the first half of 2026, bringing the global semiconductor market to 702 billion US dollars.

   

Current Market Assessment from August 17, 2026:

Current Key Takeaways

Practical Recommendations for Customers

• Book time-sensitive shipments in advance to secure space and favourable rates.

• Secure long-term capacity for regular shipments to reduce exposure to capacity shortages and rate volatility.

• Include fuel surcharges in your budget planning and consider rate agreements with clearly defined surcharge mechanisms.

• Stay alert to disruptions and tariff changes (e.g. US duties or customs fees for low-value parcels).

• Forward planning and flexibility remain essential.

• Evaluate multimodal solutions, such as rail, sea-air or road-air services, for shipments that are less time-sensitive.

• Rail Solutions: Rail transport via the Iron Silk Road is a viable alternative to airfreight and seafreight from Asia (China, South Korea, Vietnam, and Japan) to Europe. This service is running smoothly with highly competitive transit times of around 15-20 days between China to Europe. Additionally, by choosing rail transport, customers can benefit from cost savings of about 60% compared to airfreight. Due to high demand, available rail capacity is very tight. Therefore, we recommend booking as early as possible to secure space.

Your cargo-partner representative is ready to help you navigate the current situation, assess the potential impacts on your supply chain, and secure the best transport solution for your shipments.

cargo-partner Consolidation Services:

• Competitive pricing

• Secured space on weekly flights

• Pre-carriage and on-carriage services

• Comprehensive customs clearance services

• First and Last-Mile solutions with extensive local network

• Supervision by local offices at origin and destination

cargo-partner Key Gateways

• Dual gateway VIE/BUD to cover the Central and Eastern European region

• Coverage of China by our gateways in South, Central and North China

• Our gateways offer extensive connectivity and advanced infrastructure

• Dedicated gateway teams in Europe and Asia ensure streamlined operations 

• Benefit from regular consolidation programs with competitive pricing

cargo-partner SAF Program

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) enables companies to reduce airfreight-related CO₂e emissions without changing their existing logistics setup. Learn more about cargo-partner's SAF Program below.