Airfreight Insights

The military escalation in the Middle East has significantly impacted the global airfreight industry, which is still facing widespread airspace closures, reduced capacities and soaring jet fuel prices.

One of the key takeaways of the past weeks is “expect the unexpected”, as the current situation remains highly volatile and fluid.

Our current market analysis

• Immediately after the start of the military escalation, the closure of airspace in the Middle East (specifically Qatar and the UAE) resulted in a tremendous loss of global air freight capacity, mainly affecting the three major Gulf airlines: Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad. 

• Immediately after the start of the military escalation, the closure of airspace in the Middle East (specifically Qatar and the UAE) resulted in a tremendous loss of global air freight capacity, mainly affecting the three major Gulf airlines: Qatar Airways, Emirates, and Etihad. 

• These airlines hold a significant portion of global air cargo capacity and have since only partially resumed their flight schedules. Emirates is operating at approximately 70%, Etihad at around 60%, and Qatar Airways at about 50% of pre-war flight capacity, according to the “Airline Recovery Index” of Flightradar24. This index compares the average daily number of flights before the war to the number of daily flights currently operated.

• Following the attack by Iran on the UAE in early May, the UAE’s General Aviation Authority (GCAA) issued a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) prohibiting flights over its maritime airspace. As a security measure, aircraft are now required to carry extra fuel to enable safe diversions at alternative airports if needed. This increased fuel uplift reduces aircraft payloads, resulting in less air cargo capacity.

• These network-wide capacity constraints have driven up rates, with the most significant impact on trade lanes to/from the Middle East, where the primary carriers face ongoing airspace closures.

• Furthermore, trade lanes to/from India are also heavily affected, since more than 40% of the capacity to and from India was operated by Qatar Airways, Emirates, and Etihad before the war.

• From a cargo perspective, the Gulf airlines are giving top priority to special commodities such as foodstuffs and pharmaceuticals, as well as any other essential products destined for the Gulf countries. One carrier informed us that the majority of its resources are being used by the UAE’s National Emergency Food Response program.

   

Current market assessment from May 18, 2026:

Current Key Takeaways

Practical Recommendations for Customers

• Book time-sensitive shipments in advance to secure space.

• Rail Solutions: Rail transport via the Iron Silk Road is a viable alternative for LCL and FCL cargo from Asia (China, South Korea, Vietnam, Japan) to Europe. Although there is a backlog on the CN/KZ border, the transit time is still competitive and varies between 17 and 25 days depending on type of train and routing. Please be aware that due to high demand, rates are increasing and capacity for April is already very tight. Eastbound demand is increasing as well. We recommend booking as early as possible to secure your allocation.

• Stay alert to disruptions and tariff changes

• Forward planning and flexibility remain key

Your cargo-partner representative is ready to help you navigate the current situation, assess the potential impacts on your supply chain, and secure the best transport solution for your shipments.

cargo-partner Consolidation Services:

• Competitive pricing

• Secured space on weekly flights

• Pre-carriage and on-carriage services

• Comprehensive customs clearance services

• First and Last-Mile solutions with extensive local network

• Supervision by local offices at origin and destination

cargo-partner Key Gateways

• Dual gateway VIE/BUD to cover the Central and Eastern European region

• Coverage of China by our gateways in South, Central and North China

• Our gateways offer extensive connectivity and advanced infrastructure

• Dedicated gateway teams in Europe and Asia ensure streamlined operations 

• Benefit from regular consolidation programs with competitive pricing