Trade Analysis: Transpacific: cargo-partner

Main Ports: Far East to US West Coast

Main Ports: Far East to US East Coast

^{Source: Market average rates for 40‘ containers according to www.xeneta.com}

Trade Analysis: Transpacific

Situation

Market dynamics shifted rapidly, particularly on the Asia – US West Coast trade. Following the temporary 90-day tariff reduction, shippers rushed to move out cargo previously stored in China, which quickly absorbed available capacities and drove rates up. Although volumes remained solid, the supply of available space soon became too high to maintain those rates.

For shipments to the US West Coast, rates dropped by almost 50% in the second half of June compared to the first half. In contrast, rates for the US East Coast are more stable due to limited allocated space, with only a slight decrease observed.

Obstacles

While space remains available at the end of June, further developments will depend on the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations between China and the US. It is still uncertain whether the current 90-day tariff reduction will be extended or replaced by a new agreement.

Seasonal cargo should be shipped to the USA by July at the latest to ensure timely arrival in stores.

Outlook

Some services may be withdrawn, particularly by smaller carriers who entered the trade to take advantage of high rates and strong demand. As soon as rates drop below USD 4,000 per 40' container, these carriers are likely to withdraw their ships again – a simple economic decision based on vessel size.

Although we expect more space availability, we may still see some constraints in the next two months.

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